The ongoing protests against the punitive finance Bill 2024 have put President William Ruto in a precarious position. The demonstrations, primarily driven by millennials and Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012, have showcased a significant shift in political dynamics within Kenya. These groups, vocal and relentless, have taken to the streets, catalyzed by the introduction of what they perceive as oppressive taxation by the Kenya Kwanza regime. This situation has escalated concerns not only within the State House but also on an international level, capturing the attention of the United States government in Washington, D.C.
Word has it that apart from cracking down on social media, if the demonstrations persist, William Ruto may declare a state of emergency.
(1) A state of emergency may be declared only under article 132 (4) (d) and only when–
(a) The state is threatened by war, invasion, general insurrection, disorder, natural disaster or other public emergency; and
(b) The declaration is necessary to meet the circumstances for which the emergency is declared.
(2) A declaration of a state of emergency, and any legislation enacted or other action taken in consequence of the declaration, shall be effective only–
(a) prospectively; and
(b) For not longer than fourteen days from the date of the declaration, unless the national assembly resolves to extend the declaration.
(3) The national assembly may extend a declaration of a state of emergency–
(a) By resolution adopted—
(i) Following a public debate in the national assembly; and
(ii) By the majorities specified in clause (4); and
(b) For not longer than two months at a time.
(4) The first extension of the declaration of a state of emergency requires a supporting vote of at least two-thirds of all the members of the national assembly, and any subsequent extension requires a supporting vote of at least three-quarters of all the members of the national assembly.
(5) The Supreme Court may decide on the validity of–
(a) A declaration of a state of emergency;
(b) any extension of a declaration of a state of emergency; and
(c) any legislation enacted, or other action taken, in consequence of a declaration of a state of emergency.
(6) Any legislation enacted in consequence of a declaration of a state of emergency–
(a) May limit a right or fundamental freedom in the Bill of Rights only to the extent that–
(i) The limitation is strictly required by the emergency; and
(ii) the legislation is consistent with the republic’s obligations under international law applicable to a state of emergency; and
(b) Shall not take effect until it is published in the gazette.
(7) A declaration of a state of emergency, or legislation enacted or other action taken in consequence of any declaration, may not permit or authorise the indemnification of the state, or of any person, in respect of any unlawful act or omission.
At State House, Ruto is getting concerned that he is facing a battalion ready to break his record of never losing a political contest which is further energised by the voices of support from the opposition and African Union.
Domestic Response
Inside Kenya, the possibility of President Ruto resorting to a declaration of a state of emergency looms, a drastic measure that would underscore the severity of the crisis. Such a declaration, pursuant to Article 132 (4) (d) of the Kenyan Constitution, can only occur under specific circumstances such as war, invasion, or severe public emergency, necessitating an immediate and robust response that could suspend certain civil liberties and escalate government control.
The Constitution restricts the duration of any such state of emergency to fourteen days, extendable by the National Assembly under stringent conditions, including a two-thirds majority vote for the first extension and a three-quarters majority for subsequent ones. This safeguard is designed to ensure that emergency powers are not misused, maintaining a balance between national security and civil rights.
Political Repercussions
The political stakes for Ruto are high, as he faces unprecedented pressure not only from protestors but also from within his own administration and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA). The demonstrations and his potential responses place his political future in jeopardy, with the looming possibility of not securing a second term in the 2027 elections. The unity and resolve shown by protestors across 17 regions signal a widespread disapproval that transcends previous political alignments, which were often marred by ethnic divisions.
International Concerns
Globally, the response to Ruto’s handling of the protests has been one of concern. The Biden administration, having engaged diplomatically with Kenya extensively, finds itself in a delicate position as it observes the use of excessive force against peaceful demonstrators, a tactic that starkly contrasts with the democratic values advocated by the U.S. Moreover, the U.S. Embassy’s advisory, along with similar advisories from other nations like the United Kingdom, underscores growing international apprehensions about Kenya’s stability and Ruto’s governance.
Future Prospects
Moving forward, Ruto faces several critical decisions. He could reassess the contested finance Bill to appease public discontent or continue to push through the legislation, potentially using more authoritarian methods. Each choice carries significant implications for his leadership and the nation’s direction. Additionally, the emergence of Gen Z as a potent political force, unaffiliated with traditional political structures and utilizing digital platforms to mobilize, presents a new challenge to Ruto’s administration, which must now reconsider its engagement strategies with this influential demographic.
In conclusion, the situation in Kenya is a pivotal moment for democracy in the region. It highlights the power of youth-led movements and the impact of digital media on political mobilization. How Ruto navigates this crisis will not only determine his political legacy but also set precedents for handling civil unrest in the digital age. The coming days are crucial as they will likely shape the political landscape in Kenya for years to come, influencing not only domestic policies but also international relations in the East African context.
