Aramco Q4 profit is forecast to reach around $25 billion, reflecting steady annual growth despite softer quarter-on-quarter performance. Analysts expect earnings to benefit from stronger production, although weaker oil prices could weigh on margins.
According to AlJazira Capital, Saudi Aramco is projected to post net profit after minority interest of 91.9 billion Saudi riyals in the fourth quarter of 2025. That equals roughly $24.5 billion.
Aramco Q4 Profit: YoY Gains, QoQ Dip
The Aramco Q4 profit estimate represents a 5.9 percent increase year-on-year. However, it marks a 5.5 percent decline compared to the previous quarter.
Adjusted net income is expected to fall by 9.2 percent sequentially. Analysts attribute the dip mainly to a 7.4 percent drop in crude oil prices during the quarter.
Nevertheless, higher production helped cushion the impact. Output increased by 4.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, or about 400,000 barrels per day.
Revenue Trends and Segment Performance
Revenue is forecast at SAR 406.9 billion. That reflects a 5.1 percent annual decline and a 2.7 percent quarterly contraction.
Upstream revenue is expected to drop 7.5 percent compared to the third quarter. Meanwhile, downstream revenue may rise 1 percent on improved refining margins.
Chemical margins, however, remain under pressure. This limits the positive effect from refining gains.
The Aramco Q4 profit outlook therefore reflects a mixed operational environment. Production strength offsets pricing weakness, but margin pressure persists in petrochemicals.
2026 Outlook: Flat Earnings, Modest Growth
Looking ahead, analysts project 2026 revenue to grow marginally by 0.5 percent year-on-year to SAR 1.7 trillion. Net income is expected to remain broadly flat at SAR 371 billion.
These projections assume an average oil price of $62.4 per barrel in 2026. That represents an 8 percent annual decline.
However, total hydrocarbon production could rise to 13.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Crude output alone may reach 10.1 million barrels per day, up 6.7 percent year-on-year.
Higher volumes may partly offset lower global oil prices.
Market View and Investor Sentiment
AlJazira Capital has maintained an “Overweight” rating on Saudi Aramco shares. The brokerage set a target price of SAR 29.6 per share.
Aramco remains one of the world’s most profitable energy companies. Its earnings performance continues to shape sentiment across Middle East equity markets.
For Gulf economies, Aramco’s profitability plays a critical fiscal role. Energy revenues influence public spending, infrastructure investment and sovereign wealth strategies.
What to Watch
Saudi Aramco will publish its full-year 2025 results on March 10. Investors will monitor cash flow, dividend guidance and production targets closely.
The Aramco Q4 profit figures will also provide insight into how resilient the company remains amid softer oil prices and evolving global demand trends.
As energy markets navigate price volatility and geopolitical shifts, Aramco’s performance will remain central to the regional and global oil narrative.
