In a show of unwavering support and national unity, over 100 Members of Parliament (MPs), alongside President William Ruto, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, and other top government officials, are set to travel to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia for the much-anticipated African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship election, where Kenya’s candidate Raila Odinga will face off against Mahmoud Ali Youssouf of Djibouti and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar.
The high-stakes vote, scheduled to take place at the AU Summit on February 15 and 16, has drawn immense political interest, with leaders across the Kenyan political divide rallying behind Raila. A significant number of governors and political heavyweights have also confirmed their travel plans to witness the historic election.
A Diplomatic and Political Gamble for Ruto
The presence of President Ruto and Prime CS Mudavadi at the event underscores Raila’s pivotal role in Kenya’s political landscape and the Ruto administration’s strategic campaign to ensure his victory.
Should Raila Odinga win, it would mark a major diplomatic milestone for President Ruto, solidifying his influence both domestically and across the African continent. The victory would also enhance Ruto’s standing among Raila’s strong political base, which has traditionally remained in opposition.
However, should Raila lose the elections, it could undermine Ruto’s strategic gamble, potentially deepening internal political fractures and making it harder for him to secure re-election in 2027. Moreover, Raila, now aged 80, may return to active Kenyan politics, posing a renewed challenge to Ruto’s political dominance.
Massive Political Presence in Addis
Sources from Raila’s secretariat in Nairobi have revealed that the Addis Ababa election has attracted significant political interest, with over 100 lawmakers visiting his Capitol Hill office last week alone to seek letters for travel documentation.
While only Heads of State will participate in the official vote, the presence of such a large delegation signals a united national front in support of Raila’s bid.
Among the leaders heading to Addis are:
- National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah, who will serve as Raila’s chief agent during the vote.
- Uriri MP Mark Nyamita, who described Raila as the most qualified candidate.
- Kasipul MP Ong’ondo Were and Gem MP Elisha Odhiambo, both of whom confirmed their attendance.
- Awendo MP Walter Owino, a close Raila ally.
- Economic advisor Moses Kuria, who announced he would be setting up an “official tallying center” in Addis Ababa.
Moses Kuria’s statement on X (formerly Twitter) further emphasized the high-stakes nature of the vote:
“From February 10 to D-Day on February 15, I will be camping in Addis Ababa to set up the official tallying center. There are some people I cannot trust to protect Baba’s votes. They have failed to do so in the past.”
The Path to Victory: Raila’s Diplomatic Offensive
To secure the AUC Chairmanship, a candidate must receive 33 out of 49 votes from AU member states. The AU has 55 member countries, but six are ineligible to vote.
If no candidate secures 33 votes in the first round, a second round is conducted, where the candidate with the highest votes is declared the winner.
Raila’s Nairobi-based secretariat has confirmed that he has already secured the backing of 28 African nations, including:
- Mauritius
- Togo
- Equatorial Guinea
- Gambia
- Senegal
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Tanzania
- Uganda
- Rwanda
- Zambia
- Zimbabwe
- Malawi
- Burundi
- Seychelles
- Ghana
- South Sudan
- Guinea-Bissau
- Angola
- Algeria
- Republic of the Congo
However, diplomatic sources warn that no agreement is binding, and countries could change their votes based on last-minute negotiations and geopolitical considerations.
Geopolitical Complexities at Play
The AUC elections are not just about Raila’s candidacy but are deeply intertwined with Africa’s geopolitical dynamics. Raila’s main competitor, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, has strong backing from Djibouti’s allies in the Horn of Africa, while Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato enjoys Francophone support.
Kenya’s push for Raila’s election is a calculated diplomatic move aimed at strengthening Nairobi’s influence in the African Union, a move that Ruto has personally spearheaded in the final campaign stretch.
Unlike Kenya’s 2017 failed bid for Amina Mohamed, which was primarily handled by the Foreign Affairs Ministry, Raila’s campaign has seen direct involvement from President Ruto, a strategy that could tip the scales in his favor.
Raila’s Extensive Campaign Trail
Raila has covered significant ground in his campaign for the AUC seat, visiting 27 African countries, including:
- Tunisia
- Algeria
- Mozambique
- Lesotho
- South Africa
- Botswana
- Namibia
- Zimbabwe
- Mauritius
- Central African Republic
- Chad
- Morocco
- Eritrea
- Côte d’Ivoire
- Senegal
- Gambia
- Ghana
- Benin
- Republic of Congo
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Somalia
- South Sudan
- Rwanda
- Uganda
- Tanzania
- Egypt
- Mauritania
His engagements have been marked by strategic alliances, high-level diplomatic meetings, and extensive lobbying to consolidate support ahead of the crucial vote.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Raila and Kenya
With the AU Summit elections fast approaching, the next few days will be pivotal in determining the outcome of Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the AUC Chairmanship. His potential victory would reshape Kenya’s diplomatic footprint in Africa, while a loss could trigger major political repercussions back home.
As Kenya’s political elite descends upon Addis Ababa, all eyes are on the vote that could mark a new chapter for Raila, Ruto, and Kenya’s role in continental leadership.
