Ethiopia and Egypt have reignited their long-running dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), trading accusations after severe flooding hit parts of Sudan and Egypt along the River Nile in late September.
Cairo has accused Addis Ababa of “reckless dam management,” claiming that sudden water discharges from the GERD—shortly after its official inauguration in September—triggered what Egyptian officials termed a “man-made flood.”
In a strongly worded statement, Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation alleged that Ethiopian operators “hastily filled the dam’s reservoir for a media snapshot” and then abruptly released nearly two billion cubic metres of water within weeks. The ministry said water flow rates surged from 485 million cubic metres on September 10 to 780 million cubic metres by September 27, inundating farmlands and riverside settlements.
“The sudden and uncoordinated discharge put lives and livelihoods at risk in both Sudan and Egypt,” the ministry said, accusing Ethiopia of flouting prior coordination protocols agreed during earlier Nile talks.
Addis Ababa dismissed the allegations as “baseless and politically motivated,” saying Cairo was distorting facts to undermine Ethiopia’s regional credibility. In a counterstatement, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Water and Energy argued that the dam’s regulated water releases had actually prevented a catastrophic natural flood, given the intense seasonal rains experienced across the Nile Basin.
“The GERD’s regulation helped manage an unprecedented inflow of water that, without the dam, would have unleashed historic destruction downstream,” the Ethiopian ministry said. It further noted that historical peak flows exceeding 800 million cubic metres per day had been recorded in previous natural flood years—well above the volumes released this season.
The renewed exchange highlights the fragile state of Nile diplomacy and the deep mistrust that continues to define relations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. Since construction of the $5 billion hydropower project began in 2011, the three nations have struggled to reach a lasting agreement over water allocation, flood control, and dam operation schedules.
Egypt, which depends on the Nile for over 90% of its freshwater, fears that the GERD will reduce downstream flows critical to its agriculture and population. Ethiopia, on the other hand, maintains that the dam—Africa’s largest—will not harm its neighbours and is key to the country’s economic transformation, energy independence, and regional electricity exports.
The dispute has periodically escalated to international forums, including the African Union and the UN Security Council, where both nations have submitted competing statements and diplomatic notes.
Recent appeals for mediation by Sudan and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have yielded limited progress, with each side accusing the other of politicising the issue. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly said that Ethiopia will “cooperate with all Nile Basin countries” but will not compromise on its sovereign right to develop the Blue Nile for hydropower.
As flooding subsides, attention now turns to whether the latest confrontation will derail ongoing technical and legal discussions over post-filling operations and data-sharing mechanisms. Analysts warn that if tensions persist, they could undermine fragile peace efforts in the region and delay the establishment of a joint Nile River management framework that has been under negotiation for years.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, with a generating capacity of 6,500 megawatts, remains both a symbol of national pride for Ethiopia and a flashpoint for geopolitical rivalry along Africa’s most important river.
