The 1998 pact between President Daniel arap Moi and Raila Odinga was a pivotal moment in Kenya’s political history. It marked the beginning of a short-lived but highly influential alliance that reshaped Kenya’s political landscape.
At the time, Moi had been in power since 1978 and was strategizing on how to consolidate his grip on power ahead of the 2002 General Elections. Raila Odinga, on the other hand, was an emerging force in the opposition, leading the National Development Party (NDP) after a split from the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy-Kenya (FORD-K) following his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s death in 1994.
This alliance not only altered Kenya’s political trajectory but also played a crucial role in reshaping succession politics, ultimately leading to KANU’s fall in 2002.
Key Events Leading to the Pact
The 1997 General Elections
The 1997 elections were a defining moment in Kenya’s multiparty democracy. Raila Odinga:
✔ Ran for president under NDP, a relatively young party at the time.
✔ Finished third, behind Moi (KANU) and Mwai Kibaki (Democratic Party – DP).
✔ Moi and KANU retained power, but the opposition remained divided and fragmented.
Despite the loss, Raila’s influence grew significantly, with NDP securing a substantial number of parliamentary seats, making it a key opposition force.
The KANU-NDP Cooperation (1998-2001)
By early 1998, Moi, recognizing Raila’s growing influence, extended an olive branch to him. The two leaders initiated a cooperation pact that:
✔ United KANU and NDP under a strategic agreement.
✔ Allowed Raila to push for political reforms from within the government.
✔ Paved the way for Raila’s official entry into Moi’s administration.
This cooperation was controversial, as it was seen as Raila’s shift from being a fierce opposition leader to aligning with the establishment. However, Raila saw it as an opportunity to influence governance from the inside and possibly shape Moi’s succession plan.
Impact of the Pact
✅ Raila Joins Moi’s Government (2001)
In 2001, as a result of the deepening KANU-NDP alliance, Raila was:
✔ Appointed as Minister for Energy, marking his first entry into government.
✔ Given increased access to state resources and networks.
✔ Expected to play a key role in shaping KANU’s policies and leadership succession.
This marked the first time Raila Odinga served in a KANU-led government, a stark contrast to his earlier role as an opposition activist.
✅ KANU-NDP Merger (2002)
By 2002, the alliance between KANU and NDP had progressed into a full merger, with:
✔ Raila becoming KANU’s Secretary-General.
✔ KANU absorbing NDP members, forming a larger political machine.
✔ Moi preparing to retire and choosing his preferred successor.
Raila believed that through this merger, he would secure Moi’s endorsement for the presidency.
✅ Succession Politics: Raila vs. Uhuru Kenyatta
Despite his loyalty to Moi, Raila was not Moi’s choice for succession. Instead, Moi handpicked Uhuru Kenyatta, a political newcomer, as his successor.
This decision shocked Raila and his allies, leading to:
✔ A fallout between Raila and Moi.
✔ A split in KANU, with Raila walking away from the party.
✔ The emergence of a new opposition alliance against Moi’s leadership.
✅ 2002 Political Realignment: The ‘Kibaki Tosha’ Moment
Moi’s decision to endorse Uhuru Kenyatta instead of Raila triggered one of Kenya’s biggest political shifts. Feeling betrayed, Raila and his allies:
✔ Left KANU and joined the opposition.
✔ Formed the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), bringing together opposition figures like Mwai Kibaki, Charity Ngilu, and Kalonzo Musyoka.
✔ Popularized the historic phrase “Kibaki Tosha,” endorsing Mwai Kibaki for the presidency.
The result?
🔹 KANU lost the 2002 elections for the first time in history.
🔹 Mwai Kibaki became Kenya’s third president.
🔹 Moi’s 24-year rule came to an end.
Conclusion: A Short-Lived Alliance That Changed Kenya’s Politics
While the KANU-NDP pact of 1998 was short-lived, it played a critical role in shaping Kenya’s political future.
✔ It gave Raila firsthand experience in government.
✔ It exposed Raila to high-level political negotiations and succession battles.
✔ It set the stage for the downfall of KANU in 2002, marking the first democratic transition of power in Kenya.
Though Raila’s alliance with Moi did not give him the presidential ticket he hoped for, it solidified his reputation as a kingmaker, a role he would continue to play in Kenya’s politics for decades to come.
