The political tides in Western Kenya began shifting soon after the 2017 general elections. The Jubilee Party, once hailed as a unifying force under President Uhuru Kenyatta, rapidly lost grip on the region. By 2022, its presence was nearly invisible, while Kenya Kwanza, powered by William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moses Wetang’ula, surged ahead. The Jubilee collapse Western Kenya narrative is a story of neglect, betrayal, and strategic reinvention by rival coalitions.
How Jubilee Lost Western Kenya
Jubilee’s fall in the region can be traced to several factors:
- Neglect of Regional Leadership: Despite having elected Jubilee MPs in 2017, including Benjamin Washiali (Mumias East) and Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo), the party failed to elevate Western leaders into key cabinet or policy-making positions.
- Handshake Fallout: The 2018 Handshake between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga sidelined Deputy President William Ruto. As the Jubilee Party shifted toward the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), Ruto’s allies were purged, including those from Western Kenya.
- Disconnect with Voters: Jubilee’s development promises in the region—like the revival of Mumias Sugar and investment in infrastructure—remained unfulfilled. Voters felt betrayed.
By 2020, the region’s political landscape was primed for realignment.
The Emergence of Kenya Kwanza
Into this vacuum stepped the Kenya Kwanza Alliance, formally launched in 2022. It brought together:
- William Ruto’s UDA (the dominant partner)
- Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC, with strong Vihiga and Kakamega roots
- Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford Kenya, influential in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia
This coalition was framed as a bottom-up alternative that would focus on hustlers, economic inclusion, and regional empowerment.
Key appeal points included:
- Reintegration of marginalized leaders.
- Promises to revive agriculture and sugar sectors.
- A campaign built on mobilization, not legacy politics.
2022 Elections: Kenya Kwanza Gains Ground
Despite ODM retaining dominance in the presidential vote across Kakamega and Vihiga, Kenya Kwanza made significant local gains:
- Boni Khalwale returned as Kakamega Senator under UDA.
- Benjamin Washiali and other Jubilee defectors aligned with UDA.
- Ford Kenya retained Bungoma Senate, with Wetang’ula becoming National Assembly Speaker.
- ANC secured several MCA and parliamentary seats, including in Sabatia and Lugari.
Though ODM still controlled most governor and Woman Rep seats, Kenya Kwanza’s inroads shattered the opposition monopoly.
Jubilee’s Collapse Becomes Complete
By the time of the 2022 elections:
- Jubilee did not field viable candidates in most Western constituencies.
- Former Jubilee MPs either defected to UDA or ANC, or retired.
- The party structure dissolved, with grassroots offices closed or converted into Kenya Kwanza coordination centers.
The Jubilee collapse Western Kenya was sealed by:
- Absence of a presidential candidate.
- Total disengagement by Uhuru Kenyatta.
- Loss of ideological identity post-BBI.
Post-Election Dynamics
After the elections:
- Mudavadi was appointed Prime Cabinet Secretary.
- Wetang’ula became Speaker of the National Assembly.
- Ruto elevated Kenya Kwanza’s Western leaders to strategic positions.
These appointments cemented Kenya Kwanza’s presence in the region and allowed the alliance to tap into previously underutilized networks.
Conclusion
The Jubilee collapse Western Kenya phenomenon was the result of broken promises, political sidelining, and the failure to deliver visible results. In contrast, Kenya Kwanza’s rise was swift, strategic, and responsive to local grievances.
As 2027 approaches, Jubilee’s chances of revival appear slim, while Kenya Kwanza looks set to consolidate its hold—unless ODM reorganizes or new regional movements emerge to challenge the status quo.
