The final of the Africa Cup of Nations is upon us as Nigeria face Ivory Coast in a huge showdown tonight
It’s the Super Eagles against the resurgent tournament hosts in Abidjan for the second time in this year’s AFCON, with the two sides having also gone head to head during the group stages.
On that occasion, Nigeria captain William Troost-Ekong’s second-half penalty after a foul by Ousmane Diomande on Victor Osimhen handed Jose Peseiro’s side a hard-earned 1-0 win.
Nigeria ended up finishing as runners-up to surprise package Equatorial Guinea in Group A, after which they brushed aside Cameroon and squeezed beyond Angola before holding their nerve against South Africa in a dramatic semi-final penalty shootout.
Ivory Coast, meanwhile, looked likely to make an embarrassing early exit from their home AFCON after being thrashed by Equatorial Guinea in their final group match and sacking head coach Jean-Louis Gasset, but they ended up sneaking through to the knockout stages as a best third-place team.
Under the tutelage of caretaker boss Emerse Fae, the Elephants eliminated holders Senegal on penalties and saw off Mali after extra time before Sebastien Haller’s goal sunk DR Congo in the last four.
Nigeria are three-time champions of Africa looking for their first title since 2013, while Ivory Coast won the last of their two continental crowns during a golden era in 2015.
Where to watch Nigeria vs Ivory Coast
TV channel: In the UK, Sunday night’s final will be shown live and free-to-air on BBC Three, with coverage beginning at 7:30pm GMT ahead of an 8pm kick-off.
Live UK coverage is also available on Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Premier League from 7:30pm.
Nigeria vs Ivory Coast: AFCON Final Pre-Match Facts
- Nigeria are favourites to lift the Africa Cup of Nations trophy according to the Opta supercomputer, doing enough to be crowned champions in 56.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations at the time of writing.
- Following their 1-0 win in the group stages over Ivory Coast, Nigeria will be looking to beat the same nation twice in a CAF Africa Cup of Nations tournament for the first time since 2006, when they beat Senegal in the group stage and third-place play-off.
- Ivory Coast are the first host nation to reach the Africa Cup of Nations final since Egypt in 2006, who won the trophy that year on penalties against the Elephants after a 0-0 draw. Five of the last six host nations to reach the final have won the tournament, the exception being Nigeria in 2000 (drew 2-2 with Cameroon, lost 4-3 on penalties).
- Nigeria are playing in their eighth AFCON final, only Egypt and Ghana (both 9) have played in more such games in the competition (excluding final groups). The Super Eagles have been victorious in two of their last three (1994 and 2013, lost on penalties in 2000) having lost their three beforehand (1984, 1988 and 1990).
- All four of Ivory Coast’s previous Africa Cup of Nations finals have ended goalless and gone to penalties – they won two of those shootouts (1992 and 2015, both vs Ghana) and lost two (2006 vs Egypt and 2012 vs Zambia).
- Ivory Coast have won 17 of their last 18 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations when scoring the first goal (D1) – their last such defeat was in the 2010 quarter-final against Algeria, losing 3-2. Nigeria, meanwhile, are unbeaten in 22 AFCON games when scoring first (W19 D3) since a 3-1 loss to Egypt in 2010.
- The two most common scorelines in Africa Cup of Nations finals are 1-0 (eight times) and 0-0 (seven times) – since 2002, nine of the 11 finals have ended in one of those scorelines, with the other two 2-1 wins for Tunisia in 2004 and Cameroon in 2017.
- Since the last time they conceded three goals in an Africa Cup of Nations match (1-3 vs Egypt in 2010), Nigeria have conceded just 16 goals in 28 games at AFCON (0.57 per game). Only eight of those 16 have come in open play, including one at this year’s tournament.
- William Troost-Ekong has scored from four of his five shots on target at the Africa Cup of Nations overall for Nigeria, converting two penalties at this year’s tournament. He’s one of only four Nigerians to score two penalties at a single AFCON, along with Samuel Ojebode (1976), Jay-Jay Okocha (2004) and Victor Moses (2013), although, excluding shootouts, the last penalty scored in an AFCON final was in 1988 (Emmanuel Kundé for Cameroon vs Nigeria).
- All six of Ivory Coast’s goals at AFCON 2023 have been scored by different players (Seko Fofana, Jean-Philippe Krasso, Franck Kessié, Simon Adingra, Oumar Diakité and Sebastien Haller). They last had more goalscorers in a single edition in 2008 (8).
- Nigeria’s Victor Osimhen has had 24 shots at the 2023 CAF Africa Cup of Nations, although he’s only managed one goal (4% conversion rate). Since 2010, the only players to attempt more shots at a single AFCON tournament are Ghana’s Asamoah Gyan (25 shots, 1 goal in 2013) and Cameroon’s Vincent Aboubakar (31 shots, 8 goals in 2021).
- Ivory Coast’s Evan Ndicka has completed 367 passes at this year’s Africa Cup of Nations – since 2010, that is a record by a player at a single tournament. In an AFCON final in that time, the most passes completed by a player is 81 by Senegal’s Kalidou Koulibaly in 2021 vs Egypt.
- Ola Aina has created seven chances for Nigerian teammate Victor Osimhen at this year’s Africa Cup of Nations – it’s the most by one teammate to another at an AFCON tournament since 2013, when Burkina Faso’s Charles Kaboré created nine chances for Aristide Bancé.
Match Preview
Ivory Coast came within a hair’s breadth of elimination at the group stage of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations a little over two weeks ago; now, the host nation are preparing to once again go up against Nigeria in Sunday’s final at the Olympic Stadium of Ebimpé, highlighting a remarkable change in their fortunes.
The Elephants’ dismal showing in Group A had them on the verge of complete humiliation, to the extent that head coach Jean-Louis Gasset was incredibly dismissed mid-tournament and before the team knew if they’d be playing in the knockout stages.
As it happened, their 2-0 win over Guinea-Bissau on Matchday 1 proved crucial, with the three points won from that game just enough to take them through as one of the four best third-place finishers after losing to Nigeria and then Equatorial Guinea. The latter crushed Ivory Coast 4-0 to inflict their worst-ever AFCON defeat and seal Gasset’s fate.
Had Ghana held on to beat Mozambique later the same day, Ivory Coast would have ultimately been knocked out, but the Black Stars surrendered a 2-0 goal lead in second-half stoppage time – the margins couldn’t have been finer.
Ivory Coast’s passage through the knockouts hasn’t exactly been emphatic either, requiring extra time twice – going all the way to penalties against Senegal – before seeing off DR Congo 1-0 in the semi-finals, but the journey has taken amazingly brought them to the brink of glory under interim coach Emerse Faé.
“It’s like a dream,” he said after beating DR Congo. “When you go back two weeks to the defeat here against Equatorial Guinea, it was hard then to imagine that we might qualify for the final of our own AFCON.”
Nigeria, on the other hand, have looked strong bets to go deep into the tournament right from the start. While they haven’t blown anyone away, the Super Eagles’ progress has been built on a solid defence, conceding just two goals in six matches (excluding penalty shootouts).
After comfortably finishing ahead of Ivory Coast in second in Group A with seven points, only behind Equatorial Guinea on goal difference, Nigeria beat Cameroon 2-0 in the last 16 and Angola 1-0 in the quarter-finals, Ademola Lookman scoring all three goals across those games.
They were pushed all the way by South Africa in Wednesday’s last-four clash, with Teboho Mokoena’s 90th-minute penalty cancelling out William Troost-Ekong’s own spot-kick to take the game to extra time. Nigeria then managed to get the job done in a shootout, winning 4-2.
This will be Nigeria’s first appearance in the final since beating Burkina Faso in the 2013 showpiece and only their second this century, having lost to Cameroon in 2000.
Success on Sunday will see them go level with Ghana on four AFCON titles, a tally only bettered by Cameroon (five) and Egypt (seven), whereas Ivory Coast are looking to tie the Super Eagles’ three continental titles.
If Faé’s men are successful, they’ll be the first host nation to win the Africa Cup of Nations since Egypt in 2006. Tunisia also did in the tournament before that in 2004.
Our tournament Opta team stats below allow you to compare the two AFCON 2023 finalists. No side at AFCON 2023 have attempted more shots following a high turnover of possession than Ivory Coast (7), with the host nation having more than double the tally of open-play passing sequences of 10+ passes than Nigeria.
Nigeria vs Ivory Coast Head-to-Head
Nigeria and Ivory Coast will be meeting for the eighth time at the Africa Cup of Nations (three wins for Nigeria, two for Ivory Coast, D2), including in all three AFCON editions where the Super Eagles have won the competition (group stage draw in 1980, a 4-2 Nigeria win on pens after a 2-2 semi-final draw in 1994 and a 2-1 Nigeria win in the quarter-finals in 2013).
Of course, they’ve also already played once in this tournament, with Nigeria winning 1-0 on Matchday 2 of Group A thanks to a Troost-Ekong penalty – that was their only shot on target in what was a closely fought encounter, though the Super Eagles arguably just about deserved the victory.
That group clash was their first contest in any capacity since a January 2015 friendly, which Ivory Coast edged 1-0.
The Opta supercomputer calculates the 2023 AFCON final to be Nigeria’s to lose. José Peseiro’s men came out on top inside 90 minutes in 44.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, making them favourites – as they have been for a while now – by a considerable margin.
Ivory Coast shouldn’t be completely overlooked, though, with the prediction model giving them a 30.2% chance of besting their opponents without requiring extra time.
An additional 30 minutes was required in just over a quarter (25.6%) of the simulations, however. When that and the potential for penalties is taken into account, Nigeria’s likelihood of success is even higher. Ivory Coast are in with more than just a fighting chance though – they have home advantage as well, for what it’s worth.
Despite being considered favourites now, Nigeria weren’t always ahead of the competition. In fact, in our pre-tournament simulations, their 8.0% probability of going all the way was bettered by five teams, including Ivory Coast. At 12.1% back then, the Elephants were rated as second favourites behind Senegal (12.8%).
The tables may have turned over the past few weeks, making Ivory Coast unfancied in the eyes of some. But they’ve defied the odds in getting this far; what’s stopping them doing so again on Sunday?
Nigeria vs Ivory Coast Squads
Nigeria: Olorunleke Ojo, Stanley Nwabali, Francis Uzoho, Kenneth Omeruo, William Troost-Ekong, Semi Ajayi, Chidozie Awaziem, Calvin Bassey, Bruno Onyemaechi, Bright Osayi-Samuel, Ola Aina, Zaidu Sanusi, Alhassan Yusuf, Raphael Onyedika, Joe Aribo, Frank Onyeka, Moses Simon, Paul Onuachu, Ahmed Musa, Alex Iwobi, Victor Osimhen, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze, Terem Moffi, Ademola Lookman.
Coach: José Peseiro
Ivory Coast: Charles Folly, Yahia Fofana, Badra Ali Sangaré, Evan Ndicka, Wilfried Singo, Ousmane Diomande, Ismaël Diallo, Sèrge Aurier, Odilon Kossounou, Ghislain Konan, Willy-Arnaud Boly, Seko Fofana, Jean Seri, Franck Kessié, Idrissa Doumbia, Ibrahim Sangaré, Lazare Amani, Max Gradel, Jérémie Boga, Simon Adingra, Oumar Diakité, Jean-Philippe Krasso, Sébastien Haller, Jonathan Bamba, Christian Kouamé, Nicolas Pépé, Karim Konaté.
Coach: Emerse Faé
Nigeria to take on Ivory Coast in Africa Cup of Nations final
The Africa Cup of Nations concludes on Sunday as Ivory Coast aim to complete a remarkable turnaround in fortunes by becoming the first host nation to win the title in 18 years when they meet the Nigeria of Victor Osimhen in the final.
The match starts at 2000 GMT at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on the outskirts of Abidjan, Ivory Coast‘s economic capital, the venue where Nigeria defeated the tournament hosts 1-0 during the group stage.
After a month of competition, the most thrilling AFCON in recent memory has thrown up a fascinating heavyweight final showdown between two West African footballing powerhouses.
Eleven years after they were last crowned continental champions, Nigeria are aiming to win their fourth title and in doing so match the tally of old rivals Ghana — only Egypt with seven, and Cameroon with five, have won the Cup of Nations more often.
Ivory Coast, meanwhile, will match Nigeria on three titles if they emerge victorious at the Cup of Nations for the first time since 2015.
The Elephants are the first host nation to make it to the final since 2006, when Egypt defeated the Ivorians on penalties in Cairo to take the trophy.
Yet they very nearly became just the second host country in 30 years to go out in the group stage after a disastrous 4-0 loss to Equatorial Guinea on January 22, their heaviest ever home defeat.
The shellshocked Ivorians parted company with coach Jean-Louis Gasset, all hope of reaching the last 16 apparently gone, before being rescued as a series of favourable results elsewhere allowed them to go through among the best third-placed sides.
Under interim coach Emerse Fae, their revival has been quite incredible.
Ivory Coast eliminated holders Senegal on penalties in capital Yamoussoukro in the last 16, then came from behind — despite being reduced to 10 men in the first half — to beat Mali 2-1 in Bouake in the quarter-finals, with a winner right at the end of extra time.
They then returned to Ebimpe to beat the Democratic Republic of Congo in the semis thanks to a solitary Sebastien Haller strike.
‘Backs against the wall’
“What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger,” said Haller, the Borussia Dortmund striker, on Saturday.
“When you sink as low as we did, we no longer had any choice. Our backs were against the wall. We had to take a good look at ourselves and sort things out.”
Fae had never managed a team before being thrust into the spotlight mid-tournament.
A player alongside Didier Drogba and the Toure brothers in the Elephants side that lost that 2006 final, Fae is now hoping to follow in the footsteps of Senegal’s Aliou Cisse, who also lost a final as a player before winning as coach in Cameroon in 2022.
“We have a great opportunity to keep the trophy at home,” said Fae, who must surely now be a contender to take the job on a permanent basis whatever the outcome on Sunday.
Ivory Coast’s chaotic campaign has been in stark contrast to that of Nigeria under their veteran Portuguese coach Jose Peseiro.
Injuries and unconvincing form meant there were serious doubts about the Super Eagles coming into the tournament.
They began with a disappointing 1-1 draw against Equatorial Guinea, but Peseiro responded by deploying a new system featuring three central defenders, and the results have been outstanding.
Nigeria have only conceded one goal in their last five matches, and that was a penalty in the semi-final against South Africa.
Reigning African footballer of the year Osimhen has only scored one goal at this AFCON, but his tireless performances have been eye-catching with the Napoli striker clearly driven by a burning desire to win the title.
“We are happy with what we have done so far but now we just want to win,” admitted Peseiro on Saturday.
Nigeria were waiting on the fitness of wing-back Zaidu Sanusi, while Fae revealed that several Ivory Coast players had been struggling with knocks after the semi-final.
However, Serge Aurier, Odilon Kossounou, Christian Kouame and Oumar Diakite will hope to return after missing the DR Congo tie due to suspension.
(AFP)
Ryan Benson, “Nigeria vs Ivory Coast Prediction: 2023 Africa Cup of Nations Final Preview,” The Analyst, February 11, 2024, https://theanalyst.com/eu/2024/02/nigeria-vs-ivory-coast-prediction-afcon-final/.
