Analysis: Why Donald Trump is Likely to Win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, Donald Trump is poised to become a significant contender for the presidency. If he wins, he would be the 47th President, following his previous tenure as the 45th President from 2017 to 2021. There are several compelling reasons why Trump’s campaign could secure victory in 2024, drawing on political, economic, and social factors. Below are the key elements supporting this outlook:

1. Strong Base of Loyal Supporters

• Core Voter Base: Trump’s base remains highly loyal, energized, and motivated. His supporters, who have been dubbed the “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) base, feel strongly about his policies on immigration, the economy, national security, and “America First” principles. This core group of voters, primarily drawn from rural, working-class, and conservative segments, has shown unwavering commitment to Trump, making his base a powerful force in American politics.
• High Turnout Likely: Trump has an ability to galvanize his supporters in ways few politicians can. The high voter turnout among his base during both the 2016 and 2020 elections suggests that his ability to rally them to the polls in 2024 remains formidable. His rallies and campaign events consistently draw massive crowds, reflecting the high levels of enthusiasm that could translate into votes.

2. Economic Narrative

• Pre-Pandemic Economic Success: Trump’s tenure as the 45th President saw a period of robust economic growth, with record-low unemployment rates, significant job creation, and an expanding stock market before the COVID-19 pandemic hit. His administration’s tax cuts, deregulation, and pro-business policies are still viewed by many as a major success. Trump will likely emphasize this period of economic growth during his campaign, contrasting it with the economic challenges under President Joe Biden, such as inflation and supply chain disruptions.
• Criticism of Biden’s Economic Policies: Trump has consistently criticized the Biden administration for what he calls “disastrous economic policies,” including rising inflation, high gas prices, and increasing national debt. He positions himself as the candidate who can “fix the economy” by bringing back policies that promote growth, deregulation, and job creation.

3. Tough Stance on Immigration and Border Security

• Immigration Policies: Trump’s strong stance on immigration was a defining feature of his first term, and it continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. With increased focus on border security and immigration reform, Trump can leverage his previous policies, such as building the border wall and tightening immigration laws, to appeal to voters who are concerned about immigration issues.
• Public Concern Over Border Issues: The southern U.S. border continues to be a hot-button issue, with increasing concerns over illegal immigration. Trump’s promise to complete the border wall and strengthen immigration enforcement resonates with voters who believe current immigration policies are too lenient.

4. Perceived Strength on Foreign Policy

• Foreign Policy Achievements: During Trump’s presidency, he focused on renegotiating trade deals, such as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), and exerting a tough stance on China, North Korea, and Iran. His administration’s emphasis on non-interventionism and bringing troops home from conflict zones also appealed to voters wary of prolonged military engagements. Many voters believe that Trump’s “America First” foreign policy brought about a period of relative peace and economic stability.
• Global Leadership in Uncertain Times: In a world grappling with rising tensions between major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia, Trump’s assertive leadership style is appealing to voters who value strong, decisive action. His critics may argue about his diplomacy style, but many Americans see his tough approach as a safeguard against global threats.

5. Resonance with Populist Messaging

• Anti-Elite Appeal: Trump’s populist messaging, which pits the common people against the “elites” or “deep state,” still resonates deeply with voters who feel alienated from Washington’s establishment. He portrays himself as the outsider willing to challenge entrenched political interests, a message that struck a chord with many in 2016 and remains powerful today.
• Appeal to “Forgotten Americans”: Trump’s promise to represent the “forgotten men and women” of America, especially in the Rust Belt and rural areas, still resonates. Many voters feel economically and socially left behind by globalization, and Trump’s campaign speaks directly to their concerns about job losses, manufacturing decline, and the impacts of trade deals.

6. Legal Battles as a Rallying Point

• Sympathy from Legal Battles: Trump’s legal battles, including criminal indictments and investigations, have not weakened his support but rather intensified his standing with his base. Many of his supporters view these legal challenges as politically motivated, further solidifying their loyalty and framing Trump as a victim of the political establishment. These cases have allowed Trump to position himself as a fighter against a corrupt system, which galvanizes his supporters even more.
• Boost from Anti-Establishment Sentiment: Trump can use the legal battles as evidence of the “deep state” working against him, and this anti-establishment sentiment could energize a broad coalition of voters who feel disillusioned with the government, media, and elite institutions.

7. Republican Party Loyalty

• Domination of the Republican Party: Trump still maintains a significant grip on the Republican Party. His ability to influence primary elections and dominate party discourse ensures that he will likely secure the Republican nomination for 2024. His opponents within the party have struggled to gain significant traction, and most of the GOP base remains aligned with Trump’s vision.
• Control of the GOP Agenda: Trump’s ability to steer the Republican agenda, particularly around issues like taxes, immigration, and foreign policy, shows his deep influence. Even those Republicans who once distanced themselves from Trump have returned to his camp, recognizing his sway over the party’s voter base.

8. Weaknesses of the Opposition

• Biden’s Unpopularity: President Joe Biden has faced declining approval ratings due to economic challenges, foreign policy missteps (such as the Afghanistan withdrawal), and concerns about his age and mental sharpness. Trump will likely use these factors to present himself as a strong alternative to a struggling Biden administration.
• Divided Democratic Base: The Democratic Party is increasingly split between moderates and progressives. This divide may weaken the party’s unity heading into the 2024 election, providing Trump with an opportunity to capitalize on internal Democratic struggles.

9. Strategic Electoral Map

• Key Swing States: Trump’s campaign strategy will likely focus heavily on swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where he performed well in 2016 and nearly succeeded in 2020. His appeal to working-class voters in these industrial heartland states could once again be pivotal in tipping the electoral college in his favor.
• Improved Voter Mobilization: In 2020, Trump significantly increased his vote share among minority groups, particularly Hispanic and African American men. His campaign will likely build on this momentum to expand his coalition of voters in traditionally Democratic-leaning states.

Conclusion: Why Trump is Well-Positioned to Win

Donald Trump’s combination of a loyal voter base, populist messaging, economic and immigration promises, and his continued domination of the Republican Party makes him a formidable contender in the 2024 election. His ability to frame himself as an outsider fighting against the establishment, coupled with discontent over Biden’s presidency, could pave the way for his return to the White House as the 47th President. Trump’s strong presence in key swing states and his narrative of economic success, law and order, and America First policies may further resonate with voters seeking a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. While his path to victory is not guaranteed, he is certainly well-positioned for a successful comeback in 2024.