Analysis of Rigathi Gachagua’s Impeachment and the Likely Removal of Speaker Wetangula

Reasons for Rigathi Gachagua’s Impeachment

1. Political Discontent within the Government: Rigathi Gachagua, as the Deputy President of Kenya, might have faced mounting political opposition from within the ruling coalition. This discontent could stem from his perceived handling of key political issues or ideological differences with other senior members of government, especially in the face of growing public dissatisfaction. Rift Valley, which is a significant political base for President William Ruto, might have raised concerns about Gachagua’s influence or ability to secure loyalty from key constituencies.
2. Public Disagreements and Communication Style: Gachagua has been known for his blunt and, at times, confrontational style of communication. His frequent public statements, which sometimes targeted specific groups or opposition figures, could have alienated sections of the political elite and civil society. His unapologetic stance on many issues may have contributed to the impression that he was divisive, which could weaken the administration’s unity and overall appeal.
3. Inability to Deliver on Key Economic Policies: Kenya’s economy has faced significant challenges, including inflation, unemployment, and rising public debt. As Deputy President, Gachagua would have been expected to support the President in addressing these challenges. If there was a perception that he was not effectively contributing to economic recovery or was exacerbating political tension around economic issues (e.g., sugar or maize importation policies), it could have triggered impeachment discussions.
4. Undermining or Conflict with the President’s Agenda: Gachagua’s impeachment may have been a result of perceived disloyalty or attempts to undermine the President’s agenda. If he had been seen as positioning himself for a future political challenge or if he was too focused on his base rather than national interests, that could have caused friction. Political insiders might have felt that removing him was necessary to streamline the administration and ensure a singular vision for governance.
5. Opposition Pressure: The opposition, particularly under the Azimio la Umoja movement, could have played a role in amplifying Gachagua’s weaknesses and pushing for his removal. If he became a target for the opposition’s critique of the government’s policies, his impeachment might have been seen as a way to neutralize a weak link and protect the administration’s broader political interests.

Why Speaker Moses Wetangula is Likely to be Removed

1. Perceived Partiality and Alleged Bias: Speaker Moses Wetangula has been accused by opposition members of being biased in parliamentary proceedings, particularly in how he manages debates and motions that concern the government versus the opposition. If opposition parties feel that Wetangula is overly aligned with the ruling coalition, they may push for his removal, arguing that his actions compromise parliamentary integrity and fair representation.
2. Intra-Coalition Rivalries: Wetangula’s removal could also be linked to internal power struggles within the Kenya Kwanza coalition. Wetangula is a member of Ford Kenya and represents a faction within the ruling alliance. If there is rising dissatisfaction within Kenya Kwanza’s other political wings or allied parties, his leadership position as Speaker could become vulnerable. In Kenyan politics, alliances shift frequently, and dissatisfaction from any of the coalition’s factions could place Wetangula’s position at risk.
3. Political Pressure and Influence of the Opposition: With Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja leading a robust opposition, there might be increased pressure on Wetangula, especially if he’s seen as a barrier to progressive opposition motions in Parliament. The opposition could build momentum by citing examples of his failure to ensure impartiality or transparency in parliamentary sessions, thereby justifying his removal.
4. Perceived Conflict of Interest: Wetangula has long been a key political player in Bungoma County, and questions of his impartiality may arise due to his continued involvement in local and national politics. Critics may argue that Wetangula’s position as Speaker conflicts with his political ambitions or personal interests, making him vulnerable to accusations of impropriety or failure to act in the best interest of all parliamentary members.
5. Factional Realignments Ahead of 2027: Kenya’s political landscape tends to shift as politicians prepare for upcoming elections. Wetangula, being a veteran politician with his own ambitions, might find himself at odds with other factions either within the ruling coalition or the opposition, especially if he is seen as aligning himself too closely with one group. His removal could be part of wider political realignments as various actors jostle for power and influence ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Conclusion

Both Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment and the likely removal of Speaker Wetangula reflect the intricate dynamics of Kenyan politics. For Gachagua, internal discontent, perceived divisiveness, and opposition pressure likely contributed to his downfall. Wetangula’s potential removal as Speaker is rooted in accusations of bias, intra-coalition rivalries, and changing political alignments ahead of future elections. Both cases demonstrate how political survival in Kenya is often tied to loyalty, shifting alliances, and maintaining favor within powerful factions.